🕵🏾♂️ The Conspiracy Dungeon 🕵🏾♂️
Question everything. Test everything. Follow the evidence.
💰 Mike's Fade the Public
Fade teams receiving 65% or more of public dollars: spread, moneyline, or totals.
Status: Collecting evidence
🌙 Primetime Underdogs
Investigating underdog performance in nationally televised games.
Status: Weekly results
📉 Reverse Line Movement
Investigating games where betting lines move against the heavily backed side.
Status: Tracking recorded lines
🏈 NFL Anomalies
Unusual fumbles, turnovers, penalties, and other patterns.
Status: Four event categories
NFL Anomalies
2026 • Week 5
Explore game, world, player, and team events below.
Game Anomalies
Stats, fumbles, turnovers, penalties
World Anomalies
International games, venues, weather, major events
Player Anomalies
Sourced public off-field events
Team Anomalies
Coaching changes and sourced team events
Game Anomalies
High penalty counts, score totals, and winning margins are flagged using prior-game baselines. Penalties include referee context; fumble and turnover event tracking is still pending.
2026-10-12 • Calculated • BUF @ LA
Pregame betting total: 52.5 points
Actual game total: 71 points
League average game total: 45.2 points
18.5 points over the betting total
View statistics
League average uses 894 completed regular-season games before this game, from the current and previous three seasons.
High-scoring cutoff: 68 points (prior-game 95th percentile).
Pregame betting total uses the saved game-data line.
Source: local NFL game results.
2026-10-11 • Calculated • PHI @ JAX
20 penalties • 143 yards
PHI: 7 • JAX: 13
Referee: Ron TorbertThis referee has a similar tendency to the league for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 7.7% (4 of 52 prior games)
League: 6.5% across 881 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 13.1 for this referee • 12.6 league-wide.
20 penalties for 143 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-10-11 • Calculated • LV @ NE
20 penalties • 217 yards
LV: 8 • NE: 12
Referee: Craig WrolstadThis referee has a lower tendency for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 3.8% (2 of 53 prior games)
League: 6.5% across 881 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 12.5 for this referee • 12.6 league-wide.
20 penalties for 217 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-10-08 • Calculated • TB @ DAL
21 penalties • 149 yards
TB: 14 • DAL: 7
Referee: Alex MooreThis referee has a higher tendency for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 30.0% (6 of 20 prior games)
League: 6.4% across 880 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 16.5 for this referee • 12.5 league-wide.
21 penalties for 149 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-10-05 • Calculated • ATL @ NO
Pregame betting total: 47.5 points
Actual game total: 69 points
League average game total: 45.2 points
21.5 points over the betting total
View statistics
League average uses 879 completed regular-season games before this game, from the current and previous three seasons.
High-scoring cutoff: 68 points (prior-game 95th percentile).
Pregame betting total uses the saved game-data line.
Source: local NFL game results.
2026-10-04 • Calculated • JAX @ CIN
24 penalties • 233 yards
JAX: 13 • CIN: 11
Referee: Alex MooreThis referee has a higher tendency for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 26.3% (5 of 19 prior games)
League: 6.1% across 865 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 16.1 for this referee • 12.5 league-wide.
24 penalties for 233 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-10-04 • Calculated • LAC @ SEA
30 penalties • 280 yards
LAC: 16 • SEA: 14
Referee: Scott NovakThis referee has a similar tendency to the league for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 5.8% (3 of 52 prior games)
League: 6.1% across 865 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 11.9 for this referee • 12.5 league-wide.
30 penalties for 280 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-10-04 • Calculated • MIA @ MIN
20 penalties • 140 yards
MIA: 9 • MIN: 11
Referee: Adrian HillThis referee has a higher tendency for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 14.0% (7 of 50 prior games)
League: 6.1% across 865 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 13.3 for this referee • 12.5 league-wide.
20 penalties for 140 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-10-01 • Calculated • PIT @ CLE
22 penalties • 138 yards
PIT: 8 • CLE: 14
Referee: Clete BlakemanThis referee has a similar tendency to the league for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 5.9% (3 of 51 prior games)
League: 6.0% across 864 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 13.2 for this referee • 12.5 league-wide.
22 penalties for 138 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-09-20 • Calculated • CAR @ ATL
31 points; above the prior-game 95th percentile of 30, based on 833 regular-season games in the current and previous three seasons.
Source: local NFL game results.
2026-09-20 • Calculated • CIN @ HOU
21 penalties • 161 yards
CIN: 12 • HOU: 9
Referee: Adrian HillThis referee has a higher tendency for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 12.5% (6 of 48 prior games)
League: 6.0% across 833 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 13.1 for this referee • 12.4 league-wide.
21 penalties for 161 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-09-20 • Calculated • GB @ NYJ
27 penalties • 289 yards
GB: 14 • NYJ: 13
Referee: Scott NovakThis referee has a similar tendency to the league for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 4.0% (2 of 50 prior games)
League: 6.0% across 833 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 11.5 for this referee • 12.4 league-wide.
27 penalties for 289 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.
2026-09-17 • Calculated • DET @ BUF
Pregame betting total: 54.5 points
Actual game total: 72 points
League average game total: 45.2 points
17.5 points over the betting total
View statistics
League average uses 832 completed regular-season games before this game, from the current and previous three seasons.
High-scoring cutoff: 69 points (prior-game 95th percentile).
Pregame betting total uses the saved game-data line.
Source: local NFL game results.
2026-09-13 • Calculated • CHI @ CAR
Pregame betting total: 47.5 points
Actual game total: 96 points
League average game total: 45.1 points
48.5 points over the betting total
View statistics
League average uses 818 completed regular-season games before this game, from the current and previous three seasons.
High-scoring cutoff: 69 points (prior-game 95th percentile).
Pregame betting total uses the saved game-data line.
Source: local NFL game results.
2026-09-13 • Calculated • CHI @ CAR
23 penalties • 141 yards
CHI: 12 • CAR: 11
Referee: Brad AllenThis referee has a lower tendency for high-penalty games.
View statistics
High-penalty games: 2.2% (1 of 46 prior games)
League: 6.0% across 818 prior games.
Average penalties per game: 11.0 for this referee • 12.3 league-wide.
23 penalties for 141 yards; prior-game 95th-percentile cutoff: 20 penalties.
Higher/lower means a difference of more than 2 percentage points, with at least 5 prior games. Both rates use this game's penalty cutoff.