🕵🏾♂️ The Conspiracy Dungeon 🕵🏾♂️
Question everything. Test everything. Follow the evidence.
💰 Mike's Fade the Public
Fade teams receiving 65% or more of public dollars: spread, moneyline, or totals.
Status: Collecting evidence
🌙 Primetime Underdogs
Investigating underdog performance in nationally televised games.
Status: Weekly results
📉 Reverse Line Movement
Investigating games where betting lines move against the heavily backed side.
Status: Tracking recorded lines
🏈 NFL Anomalies
Unusual fumbles, turnovers, penalties, and other patterns.
Status: Four event categories
Primetime Dogs
2026 • Week 4
All weeks — 2026 primetime dogs
View this week's dogs and completed games • Back to upcoming dogs
Previous weeks: 9-3-1 ATS • 75.0% coversView previous weeks
2026 • Week 4: 3-0-0 ATS • 100.0%
2026 • Week 3: 3-0-0 ATS • 100.0%
2026 • Week 2: 1-2-0 ATS • 33.3%
2026 • Week 1: 2-1-1 ATS • 66.7%
Underdogs • Kickoff at 7 p.m. Eastern or later • Pick’ems excluded
Selected archive results
New week appears Wednesday at noon Eastern. Cover rate excludes pushes.
Primetime Dogs — 2026 • Week 4
Week 4 • 2026-10-01
Underdog: CLE +2.5Deshaun Watson / CLE — home underdog
ATS Result: Cover
66.7% ATS
2-1-0 ATS • 3 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
| Filter / comparison | ATS | Games | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Away dogs comparison | 55.6% | 9 | -11.1 pts |
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.
Week 4 • 2026-10-04
Underdog: CAR +3.5Bryce Young / CAR — home underdog
ATS Result: Cover
57.9% ATS
11-8-1 ATS • 20 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
| Filter / comparison | ATS | Games | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Away dogs comparison | 36.8% | 20 | -21.1 pts |
| Spread +3 to +6.5 | 58.3% | 13 | +0.4 pts |
| Last five seasons | 57.9% | 20 | +0.0 pts |
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.
Week 4 • 2026-10-05
Underdog: ATL +2.5Michael Penix Jr. / ATL — away underdog
ATS Result: Cover
50.0% ATS
1-1-0 ATS • 2 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.