🕵🏾‍♂️ The Conspiracy Dungeon 🕵🏾‍♂️

Question everything. Test everything. Follow the evidence.

💰 Mike's Fade the Public

Fade teams receiving 65% or more of public dollars: spread, moneyline, or totals.

Status: Collecting evidence

🌙 Primetime Underdogs

Investigating underdog performance in nationally televised games.

Status: Weekly results

📉 Reverse Line Movement

Investigating games where betting lines move against the heavily backed side.

Status: Tracking recorded lines

🏈 NFL Anomalies

Unusual fumbles, turnovers, penalties, and other patterns.

Status: Four event categories

Primetime Dogs

2026 • All weeks

All weeks — 2026 primetime dogs

View this week's dogs and completed games • Back to upcoming dogs

Previous weeks: 9-3-1 ATS • 75.0% covers

View previous weeks

2026 • Week 4: 3-0-0 ATS • 100.0%

2026 • Week 3: 3-0-0 ATS • 100.0%

2026 • Week 2: 1-2-0 ATS • 33.3%

2026 • Week 1: 2-1-1 ATS • 66.7%

Underdogs • Kickoff at 7 p.m. Eastern or later • Pick’ems excluded

Selected archive results

Qualifying Games19

Pending Games3

Dog Covers12

ATS Losses3

Pushes1

ATS Cover Rate80.0%

New week appears Wednesday at noon Eastern. Cover rate excludes pushes.

Primetime Dogs — 2026 • All weeks

NE @ SEA

Week 1 • 2026-09-09

Underdog: NE +3.0

Drake Maye / NE — away underdog

ATS Result: Push

66.7% ATS

6-3-1 ATS • 10 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Home dogs comparison	25.0%	8	-41.7 pts
Outdoors	75.0%	9	+8.3 pts
Last five seasons	66.7%	10	+0.0 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

SF @ LA

Week 1 • 2026-09-10

Underdog: SF +3.5

Brock Purdy / SF — away underdog

ATS Result: Cover

25.0% ATS

1-3-0 ATS • 4 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

DAL @ NYG

Week 1 • 2026-09-13

Underdog: NYG +3.0

Jaxson Dart / NYG — home underdog

ATS Result: Cover

60.0% ATS

3-2-0 ATS • 5 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Away dogs comparison	40.0%	5	-20.0 pts
Last five seasons	60.0%	5	+0.0 pts
Outdoors	60.0%	5	+0.0 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

DEN @ KC

Week 1 • 2026-09-14

Underdog: DEN +2.5

Bo Nix / DEN — away underdog

ATS Result: Loss

54.5% ATS

6-5-0 ATS • 11 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Outdoors	62.5%	8	+8.0 pts
Last five seasons	54.5%	11	+0.0 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

DET @ BUF

Week 2 • 2026-09-17

Underdog: DET +5.5

Jared Goff / DET — away underdog

ATS Result: Loss

58.3% ATS

14-10-0 ATS • 24 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Home dogs comparison	75.0%	13	+16.7 pts
Spread +3 to +6.5	66.7%	12	+8.4 pts
Outdoors	52.9%	17	-5.4 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

IND @ KC

Week 2 • 2026-09-20

Underdog: IND +6.0

Daniel Jones / IND — away underdog

ATS Result: Cover

66.7% ATS

2-1-0 ATS • 3 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

NYG @ LA

Week 2 • 2026-09-21

Underdog: NYG +6.5

Jaxson Dart / NYG — away underdog

ATS Result: Loss

40.0% ATS

2-3-0 ATS • 5 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Home dogs comparison	66.7%	6	+26.7 pts
Last five seasons	40.0%	5	+0.0 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

ATL @ GB

Week 3 • 2026-09-24

Underdog: ATL +4.5

Michael Penix Jr. / ATL — away underdog

ATS Result: Cover

0.0% ATS

0-1-0 ATS • 1 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

LA @ DEN

Week 3 • 2026-09-27

Underdog: DEN +1.5

Bo Nix / DEN — home underdog

ATS Result: Cover

50.0% ATS

2-2-0 ATS • 4 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Away dogs comparison	50.0%	12	+0.0 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

PHI @ CHI

Week 3 • 2026-09-28

Underdog: CHI +3.5

Case Keenum / CHI — home underdog

ATS Result: Cover

No historical ATS rate

0-0-0 ATS • 0 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

PIT @ CLE

Week 4 • 2026-10-01

Underdog: CLE +2.5

Deshaun Watson / CLE — home underdog

ATS Result: Cover

66.7% ATS

2-1-0 ATS • 3 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Away dogs comparison	55.6%	9	-11.1 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

DET @ CAR

Week 4 • 2026-10-04

Underdog: CAR +3.5

Bryce Young / CAR — home underdog

ATS Result: Cover

57.9% ATS

11-8-1 ATS • 20 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Away dogs comparison	36.8%	20	-21.1 pts
Spread +3 to +6.5	58.3%	13	+0.4 pts
Last five seasons	57.9%	20	+0.0 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

ATL @ NO

Week 4 • 2026-10-05

Underdog: ATL +2.5

Michael Penix Jr. / ATL — away underdog

ATS Result: Cover

50.0% ATS

1-1-0 ATS • 2 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

TB @ DAL

Week 5 • 2026-10-08

Underdog: TB +9.5

Jalon Daniels / TB — away underdog

ATS Result: Cover

No historical ATS rate

0-0-0 ATS • 0 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

BAL @ ATL

Week 5 • 2026-10-11

Underdog: BAL +3.5

Tyler Huntley / BAL — away underdog

ATS Result: Cover

75.0% ATS

3-1-0 ATS • 4 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

BUF @ LA

Week 5 • 2026-10-12

Underdog: BUF +3.5

Josh Allen / BUF — away underdog

ATS Result: Cover

55.6% ATS

15-12-2 ATS • 29 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Indoors	75.0%	8	+19.4 pts
Home dogs comparison	72.7%	11	+17.1 pts
Last five seasons	42.9%	14	-12.7 pts

Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

SEA @ DEN

Week 6 • 2026-10-15

Underdog: DEN +2.5

DEN / DEN — home underdog

ATS Result: Pending

62.1% ATS

36-22-1 ATS • 59 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Spread under +3	76.5%	17	+14.4 pts
Away dogs comparison	49.2%	127	-12.9 pts
Last five seasons	75.0%	12	+12.9 pts

Team history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

DAL @ GB

Week 6 • 2026-10-18

Underdog: DAL +1.5

DAL / DAL — away underdog

ATS Result: Pending

48.8% ATS

62-65-3 ATS • 130 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Home dogs comparison	63.2%	59	+14.4 pts
Primetime	44.4%	37	-4.4 pts
Spread under +3	45.5%	23	-3.3 pts

Team history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.

WAS @ SF

Week 6 • 2026-10-19

Underdog: WAS +7.5

WAS / WAS — away underdog

ATS Result: Pending

55.0% ATS

93-76-7 ATS • 176 prior games of this type

Relevant Historical Comparisons

Filter / comparison	ATS	Games	Change
Home dogs comparison	46.8%	114	-8.2 pts
Spread +7 or more	50.0%	61	-5.0 pts
Last five seasons	50.0%	37	-5.0 pts

Team history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.