🕵🏾♂️ The Conspiracy Dungeon 🕵🏾♂️
Question everything. Test everything. Follow the evidence.
💰 Mike's Fade the Public
Fade teams receiving 65% or more of public dollars: spread, moneyline, or totals.
Status: Collecting evidence
🌙 Primetime Underdogs
Investigating underdog performance in nationally televised games.
Status: Weekly results
📉 Reverse Line Movement
Investigating games where betting lines move against the heavily backed side.
Status: Tracking recorded lines
🏈 NFL Anomalies
Unusual fumbles, turnovers, penalties, and other patterns.
Status: Four event categories
Reverse Line Movement
2026 • Week 5
DraftKings • Public money ≥ 65% • Line moves against the backed side
This week's results
New week appears Wednesday at noon Eastern. Cover rate excludes pushes.
Market Tallies
0 reverse-line fades • 0 pending
Awaiting results
0 reverse-line fades • 0 pending
Awaiting results
0 reverse-line fades • 0 pending
Awaiting results
Latest public dollars ≥65%, with movement against that side since our first observation. First recorded quotes are not necessarily opening quotes. Moneyline changes use implied probability, including the bookmaker margin. One unit risked per fade.
Week 5 • 2026-10-12
BUF +3.5 → BUF +3.5Change: +0.00 spread points
BUF 58.0% • LA 42.0%13 pregame observations
Movement history — Spread (ATS)
| Captured (UTC) | BUF | LA | Public money |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12T19:30:41.470562+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| 2026-10-12T19:36:17.523261+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| 2026-10-12T19:58:52.162255+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| 2026-10-12T20:15:04.273783+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| 2026-10-12T20:40:35.917026+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:09:12.549513+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:21:14.539819+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 58.0% / 42.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:36:18.846749+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:59:39.140819+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 59.0% / 41.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:15:55.600587+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:28:45.982403+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:50:32.728903+00:00 | +3.5 (-118) | -3.5 (-102) | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:59:24.336821+00:00 | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) | 58.0% / 42.0% |
BUF +145 → BUF +160Change: -2.35 probability points
BUF 63.0% • LA 37.0%13 pregame observations
Movement history — Moneyline (SU)
| Captured (UTC) | BUF | LA | Public money |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12T19:30:41.470562+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| 2026-10-12T19:36:17.523261+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| 2026-10-12T19:58:52.162255+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 68.0% / 32.0% |
| 2026-10-12T20:15:04.273783+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| 2026-10-12T20:40:35.917026+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:09:12.549513+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:21:14.539819+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:36:18.846749+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:59:39.140819+00:00 | (+145) | (-175) | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:15:55.600587+00:00 | (+154) | (-185) | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:28:45.982403+00:00 | (+154) | (-185) | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:50:32.728903+00:00 | (+154) | (-185) | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:59:24.336821+00:00 | (+160) | (-192) | 63.0% / 37.0% |
54.5 → 55.5Change: +1.00 total points
Over 85.0% • Under 15.0%13 pregame observations
Movement history — Total (O/U)
| Captured (UTC) | Over | Under | Public money |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12T19:30:41.470562+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| 2026-10-12T19:36:17.523261+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| 2026-10-12T19:58:52.162255+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 78.0% / 22.0% |
| 2026-10-12T20:15:04.273783+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| 2026-10-12T20:40:35.917026+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 80.0% / 20.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:09:12.549513+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:21:14.539819+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 82.0% / 18.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:36:18.846749+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| 2026-10-12T21:59:39.140819+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 83.0% / 17.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:15:55.600587+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:28:45.982403+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:50:32.728903+00:00 | 54.5 (-118) | 54.5 (-102) | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| 2026-10-12T22:59:24.336821+00:00 | 55.5 (-110) | 55.5 (-110) | 85.0% / 15.0% |