🕵🏾♂️ The Conspiracy Dungeon 🕵🏾♂️
Question everything. Test everything. Follow the evidence.
💰 Mike's Fade the Public
Fade teams receiving 65% or more of public dollars: spread, moneyline, or totals.
Status: Collecting evidence
🌙 Primetime Underdogs
Investigating underdog performance in nationally televised games.
Status: Weekly results
📉 Reverse Line Movement
Investigating games where betting lines move against the heavily backed side.
Status: Tracking recorded lines
🏈 NFL Anomalies
Unusual fumbles, turnovers, penalties, and other patterns.
Status: Four event categories
Primetime Dogs
2026 • Week 1
All weeks — 2026 primetime dogs
View this week's dogs and completed games • Back to upcoming dogs
Previous weeks: 9-3-1 ATS • 75.0% coversView previous weeks
2026 • Week 4: 3-0-0 ATS • 100.0%
2026 • Week 3: 3-0-0 ATS • 100.0%
2026 • Week 2: 1-2-0 ATS • 33.3%
2026 • Week 1: 2-1-1 ATS • 66.7%
Underdogs • Kickoff at 7 p.m. Eastern or later • Pick’ems excluded
Selected archive results
New week appears Wednesday at noon Eastern. Cover rate excludes pushes.
Primetime Dogs — 2026 • Week 1
Week 1 • 2026-09-09
Underdog: NE +3.0Drake Maye / NE — away underdog
ATS Result: Push
66.7% ATS
6-3-1 ATS • 10 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
| Filter / comparison | ATS | Games | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home dogs comparison | 25.0% | 8 | -41.7 pts |
| Outdoors | 75.0% | 9 | +8.3 pts |
| Last five seasons | 66.7% | 10 | +0.0 pts |
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.
Week 1 • 2026-09-10
Underdog: SF +3.5Brock Purdy / SF — away underdog
ATS Result: Cover
25.0% ATS
1-3-0 ATS • 4 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.
Week 1 • 2026-09-13
Underdog: NYG +3.0Jaxson Dart / NYG — home underdog
ATS Result: Cover
60.0% ATS
3-2-0 ATS • 5 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
| Filter / comparison | ATS | Games | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Away dogs comparison | 40.0% | 5 | -20.0 pts |
| Last five seasons | 60.0% | 5 | +0.0 pts |
| Outdoors | 60.0% | 5 | +0.0 pts |
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: home dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.
Week 1 • 2026-09-14
Underdog: DEN +2.5Bo Nix / DEN — away underdog
ATS Result: Loss
54.5% ATS
6-5-0 ATS • 11 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
| Filter / comparison | ATS | Games | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoors | 62.5% | 8 | +8.0 pts |
| Last five seasons | 54.5% | 11 | +0.0 pts |
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.