🕵🏾♂️ The Conspiracy Dungeon 🕵🏾♂️
Question everything. Test everything. Follow the evidence.
💰 Mike's Fade the Public
Fade teams receiving 65% or more of public dollars: spread, moneyline, or totals.
Status: Collecting evidence
🌙 Primetime Underdogs
Investigating underdog performance in nationally televised games.
Status: Weekly results
📉 Reverse Line Movement
Investigating games where betting lines move against the heavily backed side.
Status: Tracking recorded lines
🏈 NFL Anomalies
Unusual fumbles, turnovers, penalties, and other patterns.
Status: Four event categories
Primetime Dogs
2026 • Week 5
All weeks — 2026 primetime dogs
View this week's dogs and completed games • Back to upcoming dogs
Previous weeks: 9-3-1 ATS • 75.0% coversView previous weeks
2026 • Week 4: 3-0-0 ATS • 100.0%
2026 • Week 3: 3-0-0 ATS • 100.0%
2026 • Week 2: 1-2-0 ATS • 33.3%
2026 • Week 1: 2-1-1 ATS • 66.7%
Underdogs • Kickoff at 7 p.m. Eastern or later • Pick’ems excluded
Selected archive results
New week appears Wednesday at noon Eastern. Cover rate excludes pushes.
Primetime Dogs — 2026 • Week 5
Week 5 • 2026-10-08
Underdog: TB +9.5Jalon Daniels / TB — away underdog
ATS Result: Cover
No historical ATS rate
0-0-0 ATS • 0 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.
Week 5 • 2026-10-11
Underdog: BAL +3.5Tyler Huntley / BAL — away underdog
ATS Result: Cover
75.0% ATS
3-1-0 ATS • 4 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
Not enough prior games for additional comparisons.
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.
Week 5 • 2026-10-12
Underdog: BUF +3.5Josh Allen / BUF — away underdog
ATS Result: Cover
55.6% ATS
15-12-2 ATS • 29 prior games of this type
Relevant Historical Comparisons
| Filter / comparison | ATS | Games | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indoors | 75.0% | 8 | +19.4 pts |
| Home dogs comparison | 72.7% | 11 | +17.1 pts |
| Last five seasons | 42.9% | 14 | -12.7 pts |
Team + quarterback history before this matchup. Baseline: away dogs. Comparisons are exploratory, exclude pushes from rates, and require at least five decided games; small samples can swing sharply.