Gravy Train

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Upcoming Matchups

Archived October 11, 2026 snapshot. View current matchups

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Compare Historical Seasons

Analyzing 1999–2025 to evaluate upcoming 2026 games.

📖 Understanding the Numbers

Watchlist Rank: Games ranked by the historical Wilson lower bound of their predefined spread category. Games with identical scores share the same rank.

Historical ATS: Percentage of underdogs that covered the spread in matching historical games. Pushes are excluded.

Historical Games: Number of games matching the filters.

Spread Range: The historical range containing the upcoming underdog's spread.

95% Lower Bound: The conservative end of our Wilson confidence interval. Higher values provide stronger historical evidence for a high ATS rate.

Important: These are historical patterns, not probabilities that an underdog will cover Sunday's game.

Tied #1 CLE @ NYJ Underdog: CLE +2.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 0.5-3 | Historical ATS: 53.6% | 95% LB: 50.5%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+0.5-3 53.6% 1106 50.5%
+2.5-5 53.1% 1418 50.4%
+1-3.5 53.0% 1415 50.4%
Tied #1 IND @ PIT Underdog: IND +2.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 0.5-3 | Historical ATS: 53.6% | 95% LB: 50.5%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+0.5-3 53.6% 1106 50.5%
+2.5-5 53.1% 1418 50.4%
+1-3.5 53.0% 1415 50.4%
Tied #1 SF @ SEA Underdog: SF +3.0

Ranking Basis: Spread 0.5-3 | Historical ATS: 53.6% | 95% LB: 50.5%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+3-5.5 54.0% 1344 51.2%
+0.5-3 53.6% 1106 50.5%
+2.5-5 53.1% 1418 50.4%
Tied #4 LV @ NE Underdog: LV +3.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 3.5-6.5 | Historical ATS: 52.5% | 95% LB: 49.6%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+3-5.5 54.0% 1344 51.2%
+2.5-5 53.1% 1418 50.4%
+1-3.5 53.0% 1415 50.4%
Tied #4 NYG @ WAS Underdog: NYG +4.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 3.5-6.5 | Historical ATS: 52.5% | 95% LB: 49.6%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+3-5.5 54.0% 1344 51.2%
+2.5-5 53.1% 1418 50.4%
+4.5-7 53.3% 979 50.1%
Watchlist Rank #6 HOU @ TEN Underdog: TEN +7.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 7-9.5 | Historical ATS: 55.5% | 95% LB: 49.6%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+7.5-10 59.1% 194 52.0%
+7-9.5 55.5% 280 49.6%
+6.5-9 54.2% 331 48.7%
Watchlist Rank #7 PHI @ JAX Underdog: PHI +7.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 7-9.5 | Historical ATS: 50.7% | 95% LB: 47.0%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+5.5-8 52.9% 959 49.7%
+5-7.5 52.8% 995 49.7%
+6.5-9 52.1% 786 48.6%
Tied #8 CHI @ GB Underdog: GB +1.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 0.5-3 | Historical ATS: 48.7% | 95% LB: 45.4%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+1.5-4 49.4% 988 46.2%
+1-3.5 48.8% 1116 45.8%
+0.5-3 48.7% 909 45.4%
Tied #8 MIN @ NO Underdog: NO +2.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 0.5-3 | Historical ATS: 48.7% | 95% LB: 45.4%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+2.5-5 49.6% 973 46.4%
+2-4.5 49.5% 992 46.3%
+1.5-4 49.4% 988 46.2%
Tied #10 CIN @ MIA Underdog: MIA +6.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 3.5-6.5 | Historical ATS: 48.5% | 95% LB: 44.6%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+6.5-9 54.2% 331 48.7%
+5-7.5 51.6% 483 47.1%
+6-8.5 51.5% 395 46.6%
Tied #10 DEN @ LAC Underdog: LAC +3.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 3.5-6.5 | Historical ATS: 48.5% | 95% LB: 44.6%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+2.5-5 49.6% 973 46.4%
+2-4.5 49.5% 992 46.3%
+1.5-4 49.4% 988 46.2%
Tied #10 DET @ ARI Underdog: ARI +5.5

Ranking Basis: Spread 3.5-6.5 | Historical ATS: 48.5% | 95% LB: 44.6%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+5-7.5 51.6% 483 47.1%
+5.5-8 50.4% 463 45.9%
+3-5.5 48.9% 871 45.5%
Watchlist Rank #13 BAL @ ATL Underdog: BAL +3.0

Ranking Basis: Spread 0.5-3 | Historical ATS: 48.9% | 95% LB: 42.5%

Exploratory Matching Ranges

Spread ATS Games 95% LB
+2-4.5 50.0% 311 44.4%
+1-3.5 49.5% 313 43.9%
+1.5-4 49.5% 300 43.8%