| Model | ATS wins–losses–pushes | ATS rate | Margin error / game | Total error / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoring only | 103–104–1 | 49.8% | 10.4 points | 10.4 points |
| Scoring + matchup EPA | 104–103–1 | 50.2% | 10.5 points | 10.5 points |
| TM Baseline (existing) | 95–112–1 | 45.9% | — | — |
| V1 Recent Form (existing) | 116–91–1 | 56.0% | — | — |
| V3 Matchup EPA (existing) | 112–95–1 | 54.1% | — | — |
THE PLUG · GRAVY TRAIN
Team Ratings
Explore what happened, compare matchups, and see how much evidence supports each number.
Scoring ratings use points; EPA measures play value above expectation. These are separate scales.
How ratings and estimates work
Ratings use all venues before the selected week. The statistical venue filter does not restrict these ratings; matchup venue is set separately above. Smaller samples shrink toward league average. Scoring strength is adjusted for opponents; recent form uses the last three games.
Passing and rushing ratings are in EPA per game relative to the league. Defensive ratings measure suppression; positive means stronger defense. Scoring offense and defense are in points per game above average. These scales are displayed separately.
Matchups below are hypothetical comparisons using today's historical data, not authenticated frozen pregame predictions. Injury and replacement effects are not included. No calibrated moneyline, ATS, or total probability is produced.
Choose a team and opponent to see estimated scores and each factor's contribution.
Team strength before the selected week
Sorted by adjusted scoring offense plus adjusted scoring defense. Click a team for EPA ratings, coverage, and the opponent-adjustment evidence.
JAX 5 prior gamesScoring offense 1.4 · Defense 4.9 points above average
Recent net margin: 5.1 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 3.40 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 1.05 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 1.51 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 1.05 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 2.0 points (3 games)
Away: -2.4 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_CLE_JAX | CLE | 4 | 1.91 | -1.28 |
| 2026_02_JAX_DEN | DEN | 4 | -0.59 | -2.03 |
| 2026_03_NE_JAX | NE | 4 | 4.28 | 1.34 |
| 2026_04_JAX_CIN | CIN | 4 | 0.78 | 2.22 |
| 2026_05_PHI_JAX | PHI | 4 | 0.03 | -2.28 |
SF 5 prior gamesScoring offense 4.0 · Defense 2.2 points above average
Recent net margin: 2.7 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 5.14 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.82 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -0.23 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 0.87 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 0.4 points (3 games)
Away: 0.2 points (1 games)
Neutral: -0.8 points (1 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_SF_LA | LA | 4 | 0.03 | 2.34 |
| 2026_02_MIA_SF | MIA | 4 | -0.47 | -4.53 |
| 2026_03_ARI_SF | ARI | 4 | -4.09 | -1.91 |
| 2026_04_DEN_SF | DEN | 4 | 0.78 | -1.28 |
| 2026_05_SF_SEA | SEA | 4 | 2.53 | 1.47 |
KC 4 prior gamesScoring offense 2.8 · Defense 1.6 points above average
Recent net margin: 2.9 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 2.10 | 4 |
| Rushing offense | 2.38 | 4 |
| Pass suppression | -0.39 | 4 |
| Rush suppression | 0.45 | 4 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 0.8 points (2 games)
Away: -0.8 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_DEN_KC | DEN | 4 | 1.66 | -0.78 |
| 2026_02_IND_KC | IND | 4 | -1.47 | 0.09 |
| 2026_03_KC_MIA | MIA | 4 | -1.84 | -4.16 |
| 2026_04_KC_LV | LV | 4 | -0.72 | 1.47 |
MIN 5 prior gamesScoring offense -1.2 · Defense 5.6 points above average
Recent net margin: 3.1 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -1.57 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -1.80 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 5.09 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 1.28 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 1.7 points (2 games)
Away: -1.5 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_GB_MIN | GB | 4 | 2.53 | -1.41 |
| 2026_02_MIN_CHI | CHI | 4 | 0.78 | 2.84 |
| 2026_03_MIN_TB | TB | 4 | 0.53 | -1.16 |
| 2026_04_MIA_MIN | MIA | 4 | -2.97 | -4.16 |
| 2026_05_MIN_NO | NO | 4 | -4.34 | 1.47 |
NE 5 prior gamesScoring offense -0.4 · Defense 3.9 points above average
Recent net margin: 0.3 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 1.05 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.63 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 2.36 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -1.16 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 3.5 points (2 games)
Away: -3.0 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_NE_SEA | SEA | 4 | -0.22 | 3.47 |
| 2026_02_PIT_NE | PIT | 4 | 0.53 | 1.84 |
| 2026_03_NE_JAX | JAX | 4 | 3.66 | -0.66 |
| 2026_04_NE_BUF | BUF | 4 | -2.34 | 5.59 |
| 2026_05_LV_NE | LV | 4 | 1.16 | 2.72 |
CHI 5 prior gamesScoring offense 1.3 · Defense 2.0 points above average
Recent net margin: 1.0 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 0.20 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.54 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 0.16 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -2.69 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -2.6 points (3 games)
Away: 3.1 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_CHI_CAR | CAR | 3 | 2.85 | 2.01 |
| 2026_02_MIN_CHI | MIN | 4 | 4.03 | 0.84 |
| 2026_03_PHI_CHI | PHI | 4 | 1.03 | -1.03 |
| 2026_04_NYJ_CHI | NYJ | 4 | 2.53 | -1.53 |
| 2026_05_CHI_GB | GB | 4 | -1.47 | -2.53 |
SEA 5 prior gamesScoring offense 1.6 · Defense 1.3 points above average
Recent net margin: 0.3 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -0.34 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -2.83 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 4.00 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 1.96 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -1.2 points (3 games)
Away: 1.4 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_NE_SEA | NE | 4 | 1.53 | 0.84 |
| 2026_02_SEA_ARI | ARI | 4 | -4.72 | 0.97 |
| 2026_03_SEA_WAS | WAS | 4 | -3.09 | -1.41 |
| 2026_04_LAC_SEA | LAC | 4 | -0.72 | -4.03 |
| 2026_05_SF_SEA | SF | 4 | 3.66 | 3.59 |
BUF 5 prior gamesScoring offense 5.6 · Defense -3.0 points above average
Recent net margin: 1.1 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 3.45 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 3.17 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -3.20 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -2.00 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -1.1 points (3 games)
Away: 1.2 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_BUF_HOU | HOU | 4 | 2.16 | -1.78 |
| 2026_02_DET_BUF | DET | 4 | -1.72 | 4.97 |
| 2026_03_LAC_BUF | LAC | 4 | -1.47 | -3.16 |
| 2026_04_NE_BUF | NE | 4 | 3.16 | -1.53 |
| 2026_05_BUF_LA | LA | 4 | 1.28 | -1.03 |
CIN 5 prior gamesScoring offense 2.1 · Defense -0.0 points above average
Recent net margin: -0.1 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 2.39 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -0.20 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 0.71 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -0.12 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -0.2 points (2 games)
Away: 0.2 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_TB_CIN | TB | 4 | 1.78 | -2.53 |
| 2026_02_CIN_HOU | HOU | 4 | 0.16 | 1.34 |
| 2026_03_CIN_PIT | PIT | 4 | 1.41 | -1.53 |
| 2026_04_JAX_CIN | JAX | 4 | 5.03 | 0.97 |
| 2026_05_CIN_MIA | MIA | 4 | -0.97 | -5.91 |
BAL 5 prior gamesScoring offense 2.7 · Defense -0.7 points above average
Recent net margin: 2.3 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 3.22 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 1.90 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -3.74 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 1.83 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -2.9 points (2 games)
Away: 2.1 points (2 games)
Neutral: 1.0 points (1 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_BAL_IND | IND | 4 | -0.47 | 0.97 |
| 2026_02_NO_BAL | NO | 4 | -5.09 | 0.09 |
| 2026_03_BAL_DAL | DAL | 4 | -1.09 | 1.72 |
| 2026_04_TEN_BAL | TEN | 4 | 1.03 | -6.66 |
| 2026_05_BAL_ATL | ATL | 4 | 0.16 | 0.34 |
CAR 4 prior gamesScoring offense 3.7 · Defense -1.8 points above average
Recent net margin: 4.9 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 3.97 | 4 |
| Rushing offense | -0.54 | 4 |
| Pass suppression | 0.86 | 4 |
| Rush suppression | -1.30 | 4 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 1.4 points (2 games)
Away: -1.4 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_CHI_CAR | CHI | 4 | 4.28 | -4.16 |
| 2026_02_CAR_ATL | ATL | 4 | 0.66 | 2.84 |
| 2026_03_CAR_CLE | CLE | 4 | -0.09 | -2.66 |
| 2026_04_DET_CAR | DET | 4 | -2.84 | 5.59 |
DET 5 prior gamesScoring offense 4.5 · Defense -3.3 points above average
Recent net margin: 3.6 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 6.00 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.64 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -4.50 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -0.24 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -0.6 points (2 games)
Away: 0.5 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_NO_DET | NO | 4 | -3.34 | -0.66 |
| 2026_02_DET_BUF | BUF | 4 | -2.09 | 3.72 |
| 2026_03_NYJ_DET | NYJ | 4 | 3.53 | -3.03 |
| 2026_04_DET_CAR | CAR | 3 | -1.86 | 2.72 |
| 2026_05_DET_ARI | ARI | 4 | -2.97 | -0.78 |
LA 5 prior gamesScoring offense 0.6 · Defense 0.0 points above average
Recent net margin: -0.4 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 2.31 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.05 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 4.35 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -1.08 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 2.4 points (2 games)
Away: 0.4 points (2 games)
Neutral: -3.4 points (1 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_SF_LA | SF | 4 | 0.91 | 4.22 |
| 2026_02_NYG_LA | NYG | 4 | 1.91 | 1.22 |
| 2026_03_LA_DEN | DEN | 4 | 1.03 | -3.28 |
| 2026_04_LA_PHI | PHI | 4 | 0.66 | -2.66 |
| 2026_05_BUF_LA | BUF | 4 | -1.72 | 4.22 |
PIT 5 prior gamesScoring offense -0.6 · Defense 0.8 points above average
Recent net margin: 1.7 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -3.06 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 1.14 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -0.41 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -0.03 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 2.5 points (3 games)
Away: -2.9 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_ATL_PIT | ATL | 4 | -1.09 | 1.59 |
| 2026_02_PIT_NE | NE | 4 | 0.28 | -0.41 |
| 2026_03_CIN_PIT | CIN | 4 | 1.78 | 0.97 |
| 2026_04_PIT_CLE | CLE | 4 | 0.66 | -3.41 |
| 2026_05_IND_PIT | IND | 4 | -1.34 | 1.09 |
DAL 5 prior gamesScoring offense 2.5 · Defense -2.5 points above average
Recent net margin: -1.0 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 3.79 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.73 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -7.32 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -0.71 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -0.4 points (2 games)
Away: -0.2 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.7 points (1 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_DAL_NYG | NYG | 4 | 0.91 | -1.53 |
| 2026_02_WAS_DAL | WAS | 4 | -2.34 | 0.22 |
| 2026_03_BAL_DAL | BAL | 4 | 0.66 | 2.34 |
| 2026_04_DAL_HOU | HOU | 4 | 1.91 | -1.66 |
| 2026_05_TB_DAL | TB | 4 | -0.34 | -2.16 |
DEN 5 prior gamesScoring offense -1.5 · Defense 1.3 points above average
Recent net margin: 0.0 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -2.23 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -0.62 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 5.00 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -0.94 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 1.9 points (2 games)
Away: -1.6 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_DEN_KC | KC | 3 | 0.42 | 2.44 |
| 2026_02_JAX_DEN | JAX | 4 | 5.41 | 2.09 |
| 2026_03_LA_DEN | LA | 4 | 0.41 | -0.03 |
| 2026_04_DEN_SF | SF | 4 | 1.78 | 4.59 |
| 2026_05_DEN_LAC | LAC | 4 | -1.59 | -3.28 |
GB 5 prior gamesScoring offense -0.3 · Defense -0.0 points above average
Recent net margin: 0.9 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 1.14 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -2.48 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 0.27 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -0.90 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 0.6 points (2 games)
Away: -0.5 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_GB_MIN | MIN | 4 | 6.41 | -2.91 |
| 2026_02_GB_NYJ | NYJ | 4 | 2.16 | -2.16 |
| 2026_03_ATL_GB | ATL | 4 | -1.84 | -1.16 |
| 2026_04_GB_TB | TB | 4 | -0.22 | -0.91 |
| 2026_05_CHI_GB | CHI | 4 | 3.53 | 2.34 |
ATL 5 prior gamesScoring offense -0.3 · Defense -0.1 points above average
Recent net margin: 5.0 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -2.86 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 1.71 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 1.38 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 0.56 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -3.6 points (2 games)
Away: 3.1 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_ATL_PIT | PIT | 4 | -0.34 | -0.28 |
| 2026_02_CAR_ATL | CAR | 3 | -5.15 | 2.44 |
| 2026_03_ATL_GB | GB | 4 | 2.03 | -0.41 |
| 2026_04_ATL_NO | NO | 4 | -1.59 | 0.09 |
| 2026_05_BAL_ATL | BAL | 4 | -0.34 | 2.84 |
HOU 5 prior gamesScoring offense -1.5 · Defense 1.0 points above average
Recent net margin: 2.4 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 0.35 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -0.83 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 1.83 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 2.31 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 0.1 points (3 games)
Away: -0.2 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_BUF_HOU | BUF | 4 | -2.09 | 4.34 |
| 2026_02_CIN_HOU | CIN | 4 | -1.22 | 1.84 |
| 2026_03_HOU_IND | IND | 4 | -3.47 | 1.47 |
| 2026_04_DAL_HOU | DAL | 4 | -1.59 | 1.34 |
| 2026_05_HOU_TEN | TEN | 4 | 1.28 | -4.78 |
LV 5 prior gamesScoring offense 1.6 · Defense -2.3 points above average
Recent net margin: -3.3 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 2.70 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -3.04 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -3.29 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 1.14 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 0.2 points (2 games)
Away: -0.2 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_MIA_LV | MIA | 4 | -1.47 | -4.53 |
| 2026_02_LV_LAC | LAC | 4 | -1.22 | -2.91 |
| 2026_03_LV_NO | NO | 4 | -2.84 | -0.28 |
| 2026_04_KC_LV | KC | 3 | 2.85 | 2.58 |
| 2026_05_LV_NE | NE | 4 | 2.03 | -3.53 |
NYJ 5 prior gamesScoring offense -2.9 · Defense 1.9 points above average
Recent net margin: -1.9 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -0.28 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -1.24 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 2.43 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 1.19 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -0.5 points (2 games)
Away: 0.5 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_NYJ_TEN | TEN | 4 | 0.91 | -5.66 |
| 2026_02_GB_NYJ | GB | 4 | -0.22 | -1.16 |
| 2026_03_NYJ_DET | DET | 4 | -3.84 | 4.97 |
| 2026_04_NYJ_CHI | CHI | 4 | 1.16 | 0.34 |
| 2026_05_CLE_NYJ | CLE | 4 | -0.22 | -1.53 |
TB 5 prior gamesScoring offense -1.4 · Defense 0.4 points above average
Recent net margin: -0.3 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -4.45 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 1.43 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 2.89 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 0.06 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -1.6 points (3 games)
Away: 1.8 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_TB_CIN | CIN | 4 | 1.41 | 0.22 |
| 2026_02_CLE_TB | CLE | 4 | 0.03 | -2.91 |
| 2026_03_MIN_TB | MIN | 4 | 5.66 | -0.91 |
| 2026_04_GB_TB | GB | 4 | -0.59 | -0.78 |
| 2026_05_TB_DAL | DAL | 4 | -2.34 | 3.59 |
IND 5 prior gamesScoring offense 0.9 · Defense -2.1 points above average
Recent net margin: 1.0 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -3.93 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 2.37 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -0.20 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -1.28 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -1.3 points (2 games)
Away: 0.4 points (2 games)
Neutral: 1.0 points (1 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_BAL_IND | BAL | 4 | -0.34 | 1.47 |
| 2026_02_IND_KC | KC | 3 | 3.28 | 2.15 |
| 2026_03_HOU_IND | HOU | 4 | 0.03 | -0.03 |
| 2026_04_IND_WAS | WAS | 4 | -3.22 | 1.09 |
| 2026_05_IND_PIT | PIT | 4 | 0.78 | -2.03 |
NYG 5 prior gamesScoring offense -2.2 · Defense 0.7 points above average
Recent net margin: 2.4 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | 0.15 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -1.49 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 1.03 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -1.30 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 1.5 points (3 games)
Away: -1.8 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_DAL_NYG | DAL | 4 | -1.84 | 3.09 |
| 2026_02_NYG_LA | LA | 4 | -2.59 | -0.28 |
| 2026_03_TEN_NYG | TEN | 4 | -0.47 | -5.28 |
| 2026_04_ARI_NYG | ARI | 4 | -4.09 | -1.16 |
| 2026_05_NYG_WAS | WAS | 4 | -3.59 | -0.66 |
CLE 5 prior gamesScoring offense -2.1 · Defense 0.5 points above average
Recent net margin: 0.1 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -0.85 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -1.63 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 3.02 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -0.86 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 1.8 points (2 games)
Away: -1.5 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_CLE_JAX | JAX | 4 | 4.16 | -0.53 |
| 2026_02_CLE_TB | TB | 4 | 0.53 | -1.53 |
| 2026_03_CAR_CLE | CAR | 3 | -2.58 | 4.72 |
| 2026_04_PIT_CLE | PIT | 4 | 1.41 | -0.78 |
| 2026_05_CLE_NYJ | NYJ | 4 | 1.16 | -2.16 |
PHI 5 prior gamesScoring offense -2.5 · Defense -0.1 points above average
Recent net margin: -3.7 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -2.95 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -1.07 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -1.48 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 0.30 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 1.2 points (2 games)
Away: -1.0 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_WAS_PHI | WAS | 4 | -3.97 | -0.03 |
| 2026_02_PHI_TEN | TEN | 4 | 1.03 | -6.91 |
| 2026_03_PHI_CHI | CHI | 4 | 0.53 | -0.16 |
| 2026_04_LA_PHI | LA | 4 | -0.84 | 0.22 |
| 2026_05_PHI_JAX | JAX | 4 | 5.03 | 1.34 |
NO 5 prior gamesScoring offense 0.2 · Defense -3.1 points above average
Recent net margin: -5.6 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -1.80 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -0.17 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -1.80 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -1.59 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -1.0 points (3 games)
Away: 1.1 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_NO_DET | DET | 4 | -3.09 | 4.97 |
| 2026_02_NO_BAL | BAL | 4 | -0.22 | 4.47 |
| 2026_03_LV_NO | LV | 4 | -1.09 | 0.47 |
| 2026_04_ATL_NO | ATL | 4 | -0.59 | -2.41 |
| 2026_05_MIN_NO | MIN | 4 | 5.28 | -0.91 |
WAS 5 prior gamesScoring offense -0.4 · Defense -3.9 points above average
Recent net margin: -2.1 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -1.06 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.48 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -1.83 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | -0.87 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 2.3 points (2 games)
Away: -0.7 points (2 games)
Neutral: -2.0 points (1 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_WAS_PHI | PHI | 4 | 0.41 | -3.16 |
| 2026_02_WAS_DAL | DAL | 4 | -2.84 | 0.97 |
| 2026_03_SEA_WAS | SEA | 4 | 2.66 | 1.22 |
| 2026_04_IND_WAS | IND | 4 | -3.97 | 0.09 |
| 2026_05_NYG_WAS | NYG | 4 | 1.78 | -1.41 |
MIA 5 prior gamesScoring offense -4.6 · Defense -0.7 points above average
Recent net margin: -3.7 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -4.46 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.96 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -2.68 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 1.69 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: 1.0 points (2 games)
Away: -0.9 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_MIA_LV | LV | 4 | -2.84 | 1.47 |
| 2026_02_MIA_SF | SF | 4 | 1.66 | 3.22 |
| 2026_03_KC_MIA | KC | 3 | 0.42 | 3.44 |
| 2026_04_MIA_MIN | MIN | 4 | 4.91 | 0.09 |
| 2026_05_CIN_MIA | CIN | 4 | 1.03 | 0.47 |
LAC 5 prior gamesScoring offense -5.0 · Defense -0.8 points above average
Recent net margin: -3.0 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -4.75 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | -2.06 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | 1.70 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 1.50 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -0.8 points (3 games)
Away: 0.9 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_ARI_LAC | ARI | 4 | -6.84 | -1.41 |
| 2026_02_LV_LAC | LV | 4 | -2.72 | 1.59 |
| 2026_03_LAC_BUF | BUF | 4 | -3.97 | 5.84 |
| 2026_04_LAC_SEA | SEA | 4 | 1.41 | 1.34 |
| 2026_05_DEN_LAC | DEN | 4 | -0.09 | -2.41 |
ARI 5 prior gamesScoring offense -1.0 · Defense -4.8 points above average
Recent net margin: -6.0 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -1.46 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.12 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -4.33 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 0.24 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -2.5 points (2 games)
Away: 2.2 points (3 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_ARI_LAC | LAC | 4 | -1.22 | -2.91 |
| 2026_02_SEA_ARI | SEA | 4 | -0.59 | 1.22 |
| 2026_03_ARI_SF | SF | 4 | 3.78 | 3.09 |
| 2026_04_ARI_NYG | NYG | 4 | 1.41 | -2.53 |
| 2026_05_DET_ARI | DET | 4 | -4.22 | 3.22 |
TEN 5 prior gamesScoring offense -6.8 · Defense 0.5 points above average
Recent net margin: -4.9 from 3 games, shrunk toward zero.
| EPA rating / game | Strength | Games known |
|---|---|---|
| Passing offense | -4.64 | 5 |
| Rushing offense | 0.09 | 5 |
| Pass suppression | -3.16 | 5 |
| Rush suppression | 0.57 | 5 |
Venue scoring context
Difference from this team's overall scoring, shrunk with four neutral pseudo-games.
Home: -0.3 points (3 games)
Away: 0.3 points (2 games)
Neutral: 0.0 points (0 games)
Opponent evidence
Each opponent's comparison excludes the played game and uses only other completed games before this window's cutoff.
| Game | Opponent | Other games | Offense correction | Defense correction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026_01_NYJ_TEN | NYJ | 4 | 0.91 | -2.91 |
| 2026_02_PHI_TEN | PHI | 4 | 0.16 | -3.16 |
| 2026_03_TEN_NYG | NYG | 4 | -0.72 | 0.47 |
| 2026_04_TEN_BAL | BAL | 4 | -0.97 | 3.59 |
| 2026_05_HOU_TEN | HOU | 4 | -1.97 | -1.16 |
2025 development replay
Both conversions were fitted on 2024 and evaluated on 208 identical 2025 games, with each game's inputs restricted to earlier weeks. This season was already examined during development.
The new model has not demonstrated an ATS improvement over V1 Recent Form or V3. Adding EPA did not improve margin or total error in this replay. Existing models remain comparison baselines.